UGA at Tenn.
Everyone and their grandmother know the Bulldogs are on the verge of having a lackluster season this year. After losing two star players to the NFL with Stafford and Moreno many were writing this team off this year, and rightfully so. Through 5 games the Bulldogs are 3-2. Not exactly what fans are used to in the Richt era. However if not for some scrappy and hard fought games they could easily being staring 0-5 in the face right now.
Throughout the Bulldog nation there has been alot of criticism of the coaching staff. DC Willie Martinez has been getting the brunt of the criticism with his unit allowing 27.8 points a game, and 358.2 total yards a game with 236.8 off those through the air. UGA ranks 11 out of 12 SEC teams for total defense. More importantly all to often the Dawgs look lost in pass coverage. Blown coverages, DBs tripping over their own feet while back peddling. You get the idea, the Bulldog DBs leave alot to be desired despite the talent they have. True freshman Bacarrdi Rambo has shown signs of taking over a starting spot due to Byran Evans repeated blown coverages. Safety Reshad Jones has stepped up as another hard hitting safety to follow in the footsteps of Thomas Davis, and Greg Blue.
Can Jonathon Crompton beat UGA through the air though? Currently he doesnt even break the top 10 in the SEC for passing efficiency. His QB rating is 114.2 with 9 TDs and 8 INTS. Not exactly a stellar preformance to date. If not for the game agaisnt Western Kentucky he would have more INTs than TDs this year. Will GA be able to get pressure on Crompton and make him make mistakes? Its been an achilies heel for UGA dating back to last season, but since Justin Houstons return from a 2 game suspension to start the season the Dawgs have been much improved in this catagory. Last week recording 5 sacks on LSU with 3 coming on 1 series. I think most Tenn fans would admit Crompton isnt going to beat any SEC team with his arm. Hell, Lane Kiffin feels the same way and showed it with the play calling in the FLA game.
Tenn is averaging 188 YDs on the ground thus far. Currnetly #6 in the SEC. Well ahead of GA I might add who is dead last at #12. But if there is a strenght on D for UGA its the run D. However UGA is #8 in rush defense in the SEC so dont know if you could call that a strenght or not. With a future 1st rounder in Rennie Curran who leads the SEC in tackles this year with 56, the Bulldogs have still allowed some big runs most notably the game winner for LSU this past weekend. With a talented group of LBs and Curran being an absolute beast on the defensive side of the ball I believe GA will keep the run game in check. If Crompton makes a couple bad throws early expect Kiffin to go to the ground and make them a 1 dimensional offense.
UGAs offense this year has seemed anemic at times. Mostly due to the lack of a rusher stepping up and taking the reigns that were held by Moreno. Richard Samuels was supposed to be the man but he has proved to be ineffective. Despite Richt and Bobos praise of him through the off season he just hasnt produced consistantly. Sure he has the fastest break away speed since Robert Edwards according to Mike Bobo who was a teammate of Edwards in the mid 90s, but all to often Samuels goes down on the first contact. Which is not a trait of a great RB. Add to that his problems holding onto the ball which has comeback this year. Bottom line he isnt getting the job done.
Next in line is Caleb King who didnt get a shot at the starting job in the off season due to a pulled hamstring. Hamstring is healed now and he has been getting some touches. Hes a crafty back who can make tacklers miss but undersized. He wont be a factor in this game due to a broken jaw and a concussion suffered in the loss to LSU after what appeared to be a spear, helmet to helmet, hitting a defenseless players, etc.... whatever ya wanna call it.King did play the rest of the game injured so that shows what kind of heart this kid has. You be the judge. I thought it was a clean hit until seeing it slow mo but refs dont see things in slow mo....
That leaves true freshman Wayshun Ealy as the #2 back this weekend. He recorded his first playing time of the season last week coming in and sparking the running game. The running game was none existant until he got into the game Saturday. He didnt have any spectacular runs but did show signs of a competant RB by making guys miss and not going down on first contact. Not bad for a true freshman in his first game of his college career. I expect big things from Ealy in the hopefully not so distant future. He also wears #24 which cant hurt either.
Establishing the run early will be the most important part of UGAs offense agasint Tenn. Another rushing preformance like last week and the Vols will be singing " Rocky Top" all night.
However if UGA is able to establish its running game than Joe Cox will have another big game. Cox has gotten most of the criticism for the offense this year which isnt fair. If you look at his stats they tell a different story. After sitting behind Stafford and waiting his turn he has shown signs of brillance and of a bonehead QB forcing throws that arent there. But when you got arguably the best reciever in the nation I dont blame him for forcing some throws his way. All he has to do is get the ball within about 8 YDs of AJ and 9 times out of 10 its a reception. AJ will get his YDs regardless and proved it last week agaisnt Patrick Peterson who was billed as the top cornerback in the country. AJ had 5 receptions for 99 YDs. Just 1 YD short of another 100 YD game which would have been his 3rd of the year. If not for an overthrown ball from Cox early in the game, AJ would have close to 150 YDs and 2 TDs. AJ is on pace to be the greastest reciever ever at UGA . So lets compare stats of Cox this year to Stafford of last.
Cox : 58.6 % completion, 145.42 QB rating,
Stafford : 61.4% completion, 153.54 QB rating. ( Stafford had these number with Moreno in the back field and 2 star recievers to throw to. Also in his 3rd year as a starter. His 1st 2 seasons Stafford wasnt even close to Cox numbers) This info taken from David Hales BullDawg Blog
Not alot of difference through 5 games from Cox to the #1 pick in the draft last year. Cox is already in the record books at UGA through 5 games tieing Stafford, Greene, Shockley with 5 TDs in a game. Not bad company to be considered with. Cox is a solid QB despite what critics say. He just needs some help from the running game to open up the field for him.
That brings us to the special teams. another achillies heal for UGA. Special teams have been dismal the past 2 seasons. I blame Richt and STC Fabris for this. With all the talent they have on the team they chose to play walk-ons for the majority of special teams. I understand they dont want starters injured on kick offs but at what point do you make the change after so many crucial mistakes being game changers. IDK, the jury's still out on that one. Again GA ranks near last in all Special teams stats in the SEC. That is except for punting they are #1 thanks to the UGA bloodline of Drew Butler who I believe is #1 in the nation as a punter. Butler is averaging 49.8 YDs per punt. Laughable I know the 1 stat GA leads in is punting. But having the ability to flip the field has come into play several times this season.
So in essence UGA is almost dead last in every meaningful stat in the SEC. Tenn ranks about the middle of the pack in most stats. Game being played in Neyland Stadium and all logic points to Tenn being the pick here. Line currently at -2 Tenn last I checked with around 60% of the bets on UGA. Line started as pick so that would suggest the infamous reverse line movement. Again logic would suggest Tenn if you believe in RLM. I dont bet many GA games for obvious reasons, one being that they are something like 3-15 ATS dating back to last year. However keep in mind that many of those lines were inflated last year IMO due to the preception of the team and being the dreaded preseason #1. Anytime I see GA getting points it catches my attention, add to that the fact Tenn hasnt shown to be a powerhouse SEC team in quite some time and I'll take the Dawgs ML and the points in this one. However I will wait and see if the line continues to move in my favor before placing my wager. Richts stellar road record since coming to GA is just icing on the cake. GA isnt one of the elite teams this year but they have shown to have the heart and desire to overcome adversity and win close games. If not for 2 crucial bogus calls this season the Dawgs could be a quiet 5-0 right now.
My prediction:
UGA - 28
Tenn - 24